FanBoardHQ

Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky University · 2022 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#61
Efficiency
+3.9
55th FBS
Record
9-5
Conf. record
6-2
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 11
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Western Kentucky went 9-5 and was ranked 61st in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 48th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 64th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 64% of offensive plays with a 29th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 36% of plays with a 72nd-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
2-1
Q4
7-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
62nd
-2.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
110th
full season
110th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
101st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs Austin PeayAtlantic SunW 3827+21.0100%-6.1Q4
1@ Hawai'iMountain West#125W 4917+25.1100%8.1Q4
3@ IndianaBig Ten#89L 3033+4.60%-2.7Q3
4vs FIUConference USA#121W 730+33.5100%20.9Q4
5vs TroySun Belt#28L 2734+4.60%-7.5Q4
6@ UTSAConference USA#33L 2831-2.70%3.5Q2
7@ Middle TennesseeConference USA#77W 3517+9.1100%14.8Q4
8vs UABConference USA#74W 2017+6.8100%0.7Q4
9vs North TexasConference USA#80L 1340+10.30%-30.3Q4
10@ CharlotteConference USA#123W 597+22.2100%21.7Q4
11vs RiceConference USA#109W 4510+21.2100%19.5Q4
12@ AuburnSEC#56L 1741-5.20%-14.7Q2
13@ Florida AtlanticConference USA#97W 3231+7.1100%-1.1Q3
Postseason
vs South AlabamaSun Belt#53W 4423+4.5100%27.7Q3

14 played · 9-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Kentucky, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-26.1-4.3+17.6-68-321-74151-302220-15-1Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 29th
SR 33rdYPP 23rdEPA 33rd
RushingEff 72nd
SR 85thYPP 55thEPA 72nd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 38th
SR 55thYPP 35thEPA 26th
Rush defenseEff 83rd
SR 96thYPP 61stEPA 83rd
Dropback rate 64%Tempo +0.4 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 82nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 46%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 45%2nd · Defense allowed: 42%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 43%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 91.0Q1 · Allowed: 74.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 171.0Q2 · Allowed: 74.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 92.0Q3 · Allowed: 64.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 106.0Q4 · Allowed: 111.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern KentuckyOffenseDefense
Western Kentucky Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 48th
+2.5
Field position: +0.2Finishing drives: +2.3
Field position +0.2Finishing drives +2.3= +2.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 52nd · Finishing 48th

Defensive EffRanked 64th
+0.5
Field position: +0.3Finishing drives: +0.1
Field position +0.3Finishing drives +0.1= +0.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 60th · Finishing 59th

2.57 points per drive on offense, 1.69 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(230)65% / 35%45%7.4
Q2(261)69% / 31%49%7.8
Q3(198)63% / 37%42%6.4
Q4(274)53% / 47%43%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(257)10.048%8.0
2nd(212)8.546%8.1
3rd(106)7.744%8.0
4th(24)7.029%2.9
All (599)46%7.8
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(189)10.042%5.9
2nd(96)6.545%5.8
3rd(68)7.143%5.0
4th(11)3.364%2.3
All (364)44%5.6

Western Kentucky, all games.